WHERE INTERESTS CONVERGE, CORRIDORS ARE OPENED

China has laid paramount contributions to the advancement of human civilization. From writing to medicine, gunpowder and silk, Chinese Wisdom, ingenuity and exports have always dominated the world. The present age of the economic liberalism suits China’s aspirations of the soft-power dominance. This vision translates into the revival of the long forsaken and the “fabled” Silk Route.

The US$8 trillion “One Belt, One Road” initiative seeks to revive the Silk Route by connecting 4 billion people across 60 countries. The Pakistan-China Economic Corridor (PCEC) is a section of its Maritime Silk Road. Close to ten-percent of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the PCEC investments serve as financial steroid for Pakistan’s feeble economy; whilst, also connecting remote areas of China and Pakistan to the mainstream. The mega-billion dollar project also aims at addressing the ever-loaming energy crisis in Pakistan. Around US$30 billion is reserved for the hydel, the coal and the solar power projects. It will double the pre-PCEC power output in two phases over the next decade.

The PCEC is of multi-dimensional significance to both the partners. It is a vital cog in the wheel of China’s strategic designs for the region in particular, and the world in general. Hence, the Chinese Ambassador, Sun Weidong referred to it as a “process” more than just a project.

A Time-Tested Friend

Former President of Pakistan, General (r) Pervez Musharraf saw China as a “time-tested friend”. Indeed, the amicable bilateral ties stem from the convergence of the geopolitical interests. Apart from a rough early beginning, the relations have been smooth and rock-solid. Unlike the US, China has always respected Pakistan’s territorial sovereignty and practiced non-interference in our domestic policies. In fact, Chinese support has largely been people-centric and gained much public appreciation.

China favours plebiscite in Kashmir, pretty much in line with the UN Resolutions. China also comprehended Pakistan’s alliances with the US in the Cold War era as a strategic counter-weight to the Indian threat. It helped develop the Karakoram Highway in 1979.  During the 1990s, China provided ample support towards Pakistan’s nuclear ambitions.

The horrendous attacks on the Twin Towers briefly delayed the development of Pak-China ties as Pakistan was obliged to bandwagon with the US. However, the rise of Chinese economy and the growing fear of American offensive realists has culminated into stronger partnership between the US and India. Therefore, closer Pakistan-China ties have only become natural. Chinese President Xi Jinping declared his tour to Pakistan as a “visit to brother’s house”. The friendship has transliterated into fraternity of late; something the first Premier Zhou Enlai tried to achieve on his four memorable visits to Pakistan.

The PCEC serves as a beaconlight of China’s confidence in Pakistan. At a time when Pakistan was struggling with worsening Law and Order situation and the dwindling economy, the project served as the elixir of life for Pakistan’s economic and energy requirements. It has multi-pronged impacts on Pakistan at domestic, regional and global levels. The impacts range from the acceleration of China’s influence on Pakistani society to the augmentation of Pakistan’s regional standing.

On a societal scale, the prophets of doom draw a gloomy picture of China’s cultural influence. They draw their argument from Tomlinson’s theory of “Cultural Imperialism” which propounds the presumed cultural influence of larger economies. Their concerns are certainly not without reason. We can see many Chinese roaming around the streets of large urban centres nowadays. However, it must be noted here that our cultural diversity imbued in Islamic traditions has enabled us to withstand the two neighbouring cultural giants; namely, China and India.

The economic phase of the PCEC aims at creating the self-sufficiency. The repayment of loans presents a daunting task. The government has failed to disclose the exact nature of the agreements. It has also failed to fix customs tariff and the depreciation charges for the Chinese goods passing through our territory and into the Arabian Sea via the Gwadar port. Even a small amount of duties will suffice in the repayment of loans. The time has come that we start learning from our past mistakes, especially the mistake we committed when dealing with the NATO supplies.

The PCEC power projects have already breathed in a new life into the shabby energy situation in Pakistan. More energy will provide sustenance to industry and manufacturing units. However, it is foreseen that the local industry will struggle to lay hold onto the consumer markets against the Chinese products. There are fears that Pakistan might become a neo-colony of China supplying raw material to the “home” nation. Moreover, excess energy production coupled with rising circular debt will be an unnerving burden on the national treasury.

Former Planning Minister Ahsan Iqbal referred to PCEC as a complex of networks. The project includes four proposed routes. The Northern Route will connect Gilgit-Baltistan to Islamabad. The Eastern Route will connect the Central Punjab and Sindh to the road network; the Lahore-Karachi Motorway (M-8) is expected to be completed by the end of this year. The Central Route will bring the South Punjab into the grid while the Western Route will pass through Khyber-Pakhtunkhawa and Baluchistan.

On a Strategic Front

The corridor has altered strategic alliances, designs and desires in the region. It has re-allotted an opportunity to Pakistan to reap maximum rewards for its geopolitically vibrant location. With domestic connectivity ensured, Pakistan will be able to connect the manpower rich South Asia with the resource rich Central Asian Republics; whilst, also connecting the Chinese goods with the markets in the Middle East, Africa and Europe. Nevertheless, it is a sad reality that the external pressures from the US, India and her allies in the Arabian Peninsula are preventing Pakistan from sharing the benefits of the project with many regions.

For a US$19 trillion economic dragon like China, an investment of just three-score billion dollars is certainly not a thorn in the paw. It serves multi-faceted Chinese strategic and economic interests. It connects remote North-Western Xinjiang region to the rest of China and lifts cargo burden off of the Shanghai port. Still and all, the 2,000 mile corridor cuts time, distance and costs for transporting Chinese goods to the European markets by more than half.

It is worth mentioning here that China faces serious threats to its international trade dominance from India and the US. Even a minor hostility will result in the blockade of the strategically vital Strait of Malacca. It is the narrow passage through which three-fourth of the Chinese goods pass before reaching the destination ports. China’s robust reclamation of territories and her erection of artificial islands in the East and the South China Sea could culminate in disputes; therefore, China needs to secure an alternate route vis-à-vis Pakistan.

The PCEC rings the bell of prosperity and growing world stature for Pakistan too. A terror-ridden, domestically instable state like Pakistan is becoming a “safe-haven” for foreign investments. The PCEC funds have served as a magnet attracting expression of willingness from more and more countries to join the project. Time and again, Iranian envoy to Pakistan, Mehdi Honardoost, has expressed desire on behalf of Iran to join the PCEC. Even Russia wants to join the Corridor and the United Kingdom also seeks new suitors after a rather unfortunate divorce with Europe. Barring any domestic instability, we can assume that PCEC will be a real game changer in the years to come.

China’s presence in the region will curtail US hegemony in South Asia. American brinksmanship and flexing of muscles in the region has been counter-productive. Trump Administration has made it quite clear that their new South Asia Policy is in fact a counter-China policy. China can replace America as the regional hegemon on the back of her soft-power projection. Under Obama Administration, the US labelled PCEC as the fulfillment of her own aspirations for the region. Nonetheless, a growing US-India nexus under Trump Administration has revealed true American concerns about the PCEC. Therefore, the project also targets to secure geopolitical balance of power in the region by ensuring Chinese presence, her control of the Gwadar port and the naval base to counter US-India nexus in the region.

The Sino-Russian alliance seeks to limit the US power in the Middle East; something quite evident in Syria. Pakistan can also provide fertile ground to harvest balance of power in the South Asia. For Afghan conflict, China has favoured and offered to sponsor peace-talks at the Quadrilateral Coordination Group. In the PCEC, Pakistan and China can offer Afghanistan the ability to become a viable cross-roads of resources. However, the obstinacy of the Trump administration and its unruly desire to involve India in the peace process deters Pakistan and China from cooperation in the Afghan peace process.

The PCEC has proven to be a game-changer, internationally as well as domestically. The project faces serious challenges from internal instability, terrorism and the lack of centre-province coordination. External pressures include Indian conflict of interests and ambiguity on the part of the US.

The Pak-China submarines deal will create Pak-India strategic parity in the shallow waters of the Arabian Sea. Pakistan’s foreign policy has failed badly in the recent past. With a resounding statement of confidence and self-belief, Pakistan must revise its foreign policy measures. Indeed, it is becoming part of a new Great Game; maybe a second Cold War between the US and China.

Instability and terrorism will delay the work on the project and might hinder the inflow of investments to keep the project animate. However, the role of Armed Forces of Pakistan has been commendable in this regard. They have enabled Pakistan to receive Chinese appreciation on the project security. China fears that the Uighur Muslim dominated North-West might serve as a safe haven for militants, particularly the Uzbek fighter. India is also trying to aggravate the situation by sponsoring separatism in Baluchistan through liaison agents like Kulbushen Yadhav. Again, the Armed Forces deserve credit for containing and eliminating militancy from the Tribal areas, Karachi, the South Punjab and Baluchistan. Their management of the security of the Corridor satisfies Chinese demands. Indeed, China has largely been contended with the general outlook of the security apparatus.

A handful of local “naysayers” are trying to politicize the project by provoking coercive provincial sentiments. They want to make another Kalabagh Dam out of the PCEC. However, they can build castles in the air as the centre has pledged to increase coordination between the provinces and the Margalla Hills. Desperate times ask for desperate measures. Therefore, the division of the PCEC funds has been accommodative towards smaller provinces.

Lastly, Pakistan suffers from poor-governance and corruption. The existing air of accountability should encompass the development and audit of the PCEC too. We cannot afford any more Nandipurs. Chinese needs will guarantee a partly or fully functional PCEC; regardless, our state institutions should play sensibly. Recently, the Judiciary has enjoyed fair degree of influence and thus an annually reporting PCEC Planning and Audit Commission is needed to examine the scale of the development. It must include the High Court Judges from all the provinces.

India is bothered by the idea of a prosperous Pakistan. It tried to throw the pebbles in the way of the PCEC by disregarding Pakistan’s territorial sovereignty over Gilgit-Baltistan. Chinese support coupled with determination at home, thwarted absurd Indian claims. India replied by speeding up the development of the Chahbahar Port in Iran to connect to Central Asia. However, the significance of the Chahbahar port is much less in comparison to the Gwadar port, which has already threatened Dubai. Hence, the Gwadar Port is the cornerstone of the growing partnership between India and the Gulf countries. Modi’s visit to the UAE, first by any Indian PM in the past 40 years, garnered huge investments for India; as Pakistani immigrants and diaspora was continually destabilized and deported from the Arabian Peninsula.

Economy holds high reverence in human societies. A healthy economy repels threats of lawlessness and terrorism which roots in poverty. The future is bright or dark??? It is upto us to decide. We can make “either a palace or a prison” by the bricks thrown at us. For the success of the corridor, we need a pinch of foreign cooperation, a tea-spoon of national resolve and a cup of brains to cope-up with the pressures.

A decade or two is a mere blink of an eye in the history of nations. Pakistan has the opportunity to set tone for generations to come. A meagre US$9 billion trade could swell upto hundreds of billions of dollars by the completion of the PCEC. The “Process” has given us the moment to capitalize. With devotion to the nation and open arms to the trustworthy neighbours, we can secure a fortune for many regions in the world. Per contra, we might plunge into the darkest and the deepest valleys.